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Business & Tech

Aberdeen Misses Out on Early BRAC Population Growth

According to 2010 Census data released last month, the city of Aberdeen has 14,959 residents, up from 13,842 in 2000. That's an 8.1 percent increase for the city, just under Maryland's statewide population increase of 9 percent.

Any boom in population from the BRAC job relocation program at has not been felt in the city of Aberdeen itself, and appears widely dispersed in the surrounding areas, according to new statistics produced by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Economic development experts told Aberdeen Patch there was little that is surprising in the Census data, and that the population impact of BRAC should be felt more fully as the tempo of the program increases later this year.

According to 2010 Census data released last month, the city of Aberdeen has 14,959 residents, up from 13,842 in 2000. That’s an 8.1 percent increase for the city, just under Maryland’s statewide population increase of 9 percent.

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“I would say BRAC did not have a big impact on residential growth in Aberdeen,” said Dan Rooney, an analyst at the Harford County Department of Planning & Zoning. “When you consider that the population of Aberdeen was already growing when BRAC was announced in 2005, this is only moderate growth."

Phyllis Grover, Aberdeen’s director of Planning and Community Development, agreed.

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“We are seeing better growth in the commercial development connected to BRAC, rather than in the number of new households,” she said.  That means the growth in jobs at APG is more evident in new stores and commercial structures, rather than in new homes and increased population, Grover said.

“The population growth associated with BRAC is spread out all over the place. It’s in all different parts of Harford County, and also in other Maryland counties, and even in New Castle County in Delaware,” Grover added.

Indeed, population growth for Harford County as a whole is much stronger than for the city of Aberdeen alone, according to the new Census data. The new figures show that county population has grown 12 percent in the last decade, from 218,590 residents in 2000 to 244,826 in 2010.

Grover said local officials are tracking BRAC developments much more closely than is being done by the Census Bureau. For example, local officials have identified 125 new residents in Aberdeen city proper (as defined by the boundaries of the 21001 zip code) as a result of new jobs at , she said.

If there is anything surprising in BRAC developments, Grover said, it is that more of the growth in Harford County is headed to Bel Air and Havre de Grace than was originally anticipated. Further, Cecil County is attracting more of the new APG workers than some early predictions indicated, she said.

Population impacts from BRAC will start to show themselves more clearly next year and beyond, Rooney said.

Of the 8,500 direct Defense Department jobs to be transferred to APG under the Base Realignment and Closure program, less than half have been moved so far, he said. The transfer of jobs will pick up speed significantly this year, Rooney said. 

Additional Census data shows that Aberdeen has a declining percentage of white residents, and a growing population of African Americans.

Despite the total population growth of 8.1 percent between 2000 and 2010, the number of white residents in Aberdeen fell to 8,815, down nearly 2 percent from 8,984 in 2000. The number of African Americans rose to 4,564, up 20 percent from 3,790 a decade earlier.

The Census Bureau is scheduled to release additional, more detailed information for Maryland towns and cities, including Aberdeen and Harford County, later this year.

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