Aberdeen Car Dealers Predict Excellent 2011

Car dealers in Aberdeen are looking forward to a good year, echoing statewide and national forecasts for a continuing rebound in the auto market from the dark recession years of 2008 and 2009.

“The national forecasts for new sales are strong, but I think we’ll do even better. I expect an increase of 15 percent, maybe as high as 20 percent by the time the year is out,” said Chris Frantz, sales manager of JP Chevrolet on U.S. Route 40.

Sales for this year are already off to an excellent start, with the number of new autos sold in January up about 15 percent over January 2010, Frantz said. The influx of new employees in the area because of BRAC has also helped, he said. 

The Base Realignment and Closure process will bring about 30,000 new jobs to Maryland—more than 8,000 of them to Harford County—as Fort Monmouth in New Jersey closes and most of its functions move to APG. Some are government jobs; others will be provided by government contractors.

“Last year, we had a strong recovery from 2009 – which was the worst year ever in my experience – and it looks like the recovery is gaining steam,” Frantz said.

Car dealers across the country should see an increase in sales of 12 percent, for a total of 11.5 million light vehicles nationwide, according to a January report from Paul Taylor, chief economist of the National Automobile Dealers Association.  Lower financing costs and favorable tax treatment are two of the leading reasons for the expected growth, Taylor reported.

Just down Route 40 from Frantz’s Chevrolet dealership, expectations are also high among the executives at Hinder Ford.

“I share the optimism” of national forecasters for auto sales, said Chris Hinder, vice president of the family-owned dealership. “I expect significant growth, although we have not set any specific percentage” for a target, he said.

This year should be at least as good as 2010, Hinder said.

“Last year was actually a very good year for us, given the overall economic situation. We were up about 10 percent over 2009,” he said.

Strong sales are being driven by the popularity of some newer models that Ford has been upgrading, Hinder said. Ford’s Fusion is the best seller among all models, and the Escape is the best-selling SUV, he said.  The popularity of the new models builds profitability while steady sales of old favorites like the Mustang and the Ford pickup trucks provide continuing stability for the business, he said.

The outlooks of Frantz and Hinder reflects sales forecasts locally and through most of the state, said Tom Walls, a director of Maryland Automobile Dealers Association, a trade group.

“There is a lot of optimism out there. We are hearing it from the manufacturers,” who have sophisticated economic modeling and forecasting systems, “and also down at the level of the showroom floor,” Walls said.

Walls is also president of Plaza Ford in nearby Bel Air, and he predicts that  dealership's new vehicle sales will increase 15 percent to 20 percent this year.  He said consumer interest in the Ford Escape, Edge and F-Series full-sized pickups was especially strong.

A January report forecasts a 12.4 percent increase in new vehicle sales across the state, for a total of 210,000 cars and light trucks this year, up from 186,759 in 2010.

The report, produced by the independent automotive marketing firm Auto Outlook Inc. of Malvern, PA, predicts Toyota will remain Maryland’s best-selling brand. Although Toyota’s market share has been falling recently, the report predicts Toyota will hold its lead through 2011, with estimated sales of 34,684 new autos.  

Honda will place second in Maryland sales this year (29,703 vehicles) and Ford, third (23,833 vehicles), Auto Outlook predicts.